How many cards?

Questions regarding constructed card distributions

How many cards?

Postby skatlink1 » 15 Nov 2011 12:18

This is a great way to look at your cards
Here are 4 puzzles that you can practice on.
How many cards can you find in the skat that will make this a perfect un loose able hand?
forehand
:cj :sj :ck :cq :c8 :ha :h10 :hk :h9 :da
Question #2
middlehand
:sj :hj :dj :ca :cq :c9 :c8 :c7 :sa :hq
Question #3
forehand
:cj :ca :c10 :cq :c9 :c7 :d7 :d9 :d10 :s9
Question #4
forehand bid to 100
:cj :sj :hj :dj :s10 :sk :s8 :ha :hq :da
Lets see how good you are? Out of 22 cards left in the deck how many cards will fit to make you hand perfect
skatlink1
 
Posts: 173
Joined: 28 Apr 2010 12:05

Re: How many cards?

Postby skatlink1 » 25 Mar 2014 01:05

Ok its time I gave you the answers
ok this is what I came up with I hope there right. #1
there are 18 out of 22 cards that will give you a perfect hand. too find 1 out a 2 carded skat is a 97% find ratio. the 4 cards that don't fit are KQ Of diamonds and KQ of spades. No this is how I play I go futher. out of the 4 cards that I cannot find to make a perfect hand which ones give me a higher chance of winning.If I find king q of diamonds and put down K,Q , or even both Kings. I have a 2/3rds better chance that the distribution sits my way, because now the person with the 10 of dimonds can not have 3 full ones. Even finding the King of spades and the King of diamonds, gives me a better chance, now discard club king spade king, again a few scenarios in distribution are on my side by having all 4 kings in my hand..
So even though my chances are 97 out of a hundred that I will find a perfect hand, out of the 3 that I find bad I should win 2 of them because of distribution. you should only lose this one once in your life, and probably never if you discard right.
# two there are 17 cards out of 22 that make this game unloose able 96% chance of finding the right one out of , but I again went one step further, out of the 5 cards you don't want to find,King 10 of hearts will give you the best distribution chances. and discard ace of spades and 10 of hearts. Viewing the cards even though one is in middle hand the odds of someone leading the 10 of clubs with both clubs in his hand is highly un likely un less they see your cards. If he leads the king first stay under,if the partner has the ten you can't lose, If he smears the ace of hearts you cant lose, and the player might not follow up with playing his 10 of clubs next and then you can't lose either.the degree of difficulty for your opponents is far to high on this game,not only do you have to not find a 96% winner, there has to be unreal distribution , the players have to play like gods, and Jack of clubs has to be in the hinter hand position or forget it all together.
# 3 Looks good but is actually the worst hand, you can only find 10 perfect cards, 71% win ratio. but 3 more cards give you a 90% plus winner, so that's 13 good cards 84% chance, now out of the 9 cards you don't want to find there are 8 combination of 2 cards that will give you a strong 80% winning clubs , so with all the options of grand ,clubs and null overt, even though you only have 10 perfect cards, at a 24 bid you still have a 85% chance of winning.I like this hand as a risk taker, just because I have so many options, most of the time when you are bid up with this hand your chances are better because often the player bidding against you must have 5 or 6 of the cards you don't want, just to be bidding against you. so now your really 10 out of 16, rather than 10 out of 22., more than likely you always get this hand at 23.
#4 Now this one I studied and studied.i think the trick to this question is at a bid of 100. this is what I do almost better than most, and that is read my opponents hand. At a bid of 100 what cards can the player have.To bid a hundred and using the ying yang theory using my cards there are only 3 games possible,diamonds with out 11, hearts without 9 or the opposite grand without 4, in all cases he must have 4 full ones minimum to even play,I would like to say the 2 without games are very risky and the odds of finding a trump are to high to go to 100,but still slightly possible.I will put my money on the opposite grand, and therefore give him all other 5 fullones.In which case I make 6 tricks fore sure and he will have to give me 1 fullone. He also has to keep his 1 or 2 tens covered because he doesn't have the aces to them, unless he has blank 10's and wanted to discard them, also possible. If this is the case all 22 cards fit my hand, and there fore its a grand hand. I can not lose this game if I play right, even with the cards in my hand. if he has a min of 4 full ones I will win. Only in this scenario do I play like this, but its brilliant . lead jack of diamonds, maybe suck a 10 right off the bat,lets give them some credit 100 was bid, I now play jack ,jack. the bidder is now cleaned out of bad cards, I just play 3 jacks they need to give me 6 bad cards. if 2 of them were little spades I can no longer lose, as one player needs 3 spades to turn this game over. If no spades fell or just one, then I know the bidder has made his 10's blank, or they were blank. I now lead my blank ace, I will catch the blank 10, or he has to throw away a spade or he has to make his other 10 blank.so no matter how he plays he can not get me. If he throws the spade I can open the king, if he hangs on to the spade I now play my other ace, bingo. I ve played 5 tricks he has probably 5 fullones and needs to keep 2 clubs, with his ace. already impossible.At this point I can even go one step further, if he throws no spade away,which is unlikely, he can only have the ace blank and I can even lead the little one..but even if I lead the king they can not win. as I will trump off one of his fullones and he will have to give me one of his fullones on my 10 of spades. So this is a trick question you don't need to find any cards you already have a 100% winner.Just play it right. If he has 5 full ones you can never lose even opening the spades, but if he has only 4 , you can lose opening the king first. they stay under, he gets 3 fullones home his partner 1 ten, your 10 and 3 pictures. I think if you lead the king, and then follow up with your blank ace, so they cant play you back in you should be ok too. what am I talking about,the full ones have to sit 3/2 . the only way you can lose is to play king of spades, and then 4 jacks and then 2 aces, and give them the last 3 tricks.cause if he makes a queen trick he only gets 2 fullones home, his partners only 10 and your 10 not enough.
skatlink1
 
Posts: 173
Joined: 28 Apr 2010 12:05


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